據(jù)美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)報道，德意志銀行經(jīng)濟學(xué)家4月26日警告稱，美國經(jīng)濟“可能迎來一場大衰退”。該機構(gòu)認為，美聯(lián)儲可能需要采取1980年代以來最激進的貨幣緊縮措施，才能讓通脹率從四十年高位降下來，而這將導(dǎo)致美國明年陷入深度衰退。

Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a "mild" one.
本月初，德意志銀行成為第一家預(yù)測美國經(jīng)濟衰退的大型銀行，該銀行預(yù)測衰退的幅度“比較溫和”。

Now, it's warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation.
但現(xiàn)在，德意志銀行警告稱，美聯(lián)儲尋求遏制居高不下的通脹，將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟進一步下滑。

"We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.
4月26日，德意志銀行經(jīng)濟學(xué)家在向客戶提交的一份報告中寫道：“我們將迎來一場大衰退。”

The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy.
德意志銀行認為，問題在于，盡管通脹可能正在見頂，但要回到美聯(lián)儲2%的通脹目標還需要“很長一段時間”。這表明，美聯(lián)儲將大幅加息，從而損害經(jīng)濟。

"We regard it...as highly likely that the Fed will have to step on the brakes even more firmly, and a deep recession will be needed to bring inflation to heel," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in its report with the ominous title, "Why the coming recession will be worse than expected."
德意志銀行經(jīng)濟學(xué)家在報告中稱：“我們認為……美聯(lián)儲很有可能不得不更加堅定地踩下剎車，需要一場深度衰退來遏制通脹。”這份報告標題名為《為什么即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退會比預(yù)期更糟》。

Consumer prices spiked by 8.5% in March, the fastest pace in 40 years. The jobs market remains on fire, with Moody's Analytics projecting that the unemployment rate will soon fall to the lowest level since the early 1950s.
美國3月份消費者價格指數(shù)飆升了8.5%，為40年來最高。就業(yè)市場依然強勁，穆迪分析預(yù)測失業(yè)率將很快降至20世紀50年代初以來的最低水平。

To make its case, Deutsche Bank created an index that tracks the distance between inflation and unemployment over the past 60 years and the Fed's stated goals for those metrics. That research, according to the bank, finds that the Fed today is "much further behind the curve" than it has been since the early 1980s, a period when extremely high inflation forced the central bank to raise interest rates to record highs, crushing the economy.
為了證明這一點，德意志銀行創(chuàng)建了一個指數(shù)，追蹤過去60年通貨膨脹和失業(yè)率之間的距離，以及美聯(lián)儲為這些指標設(shè)定的目標利率。該銀行稱，這項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，與20世紀80年代初以來相比，美聯(lián)儲如今“遠遠沒有跟上形勢”，當(dāng)時極高的通貨膨脹迫使美聯(lián)儲將利率提高到創(chuàng)紀錄的水平，從而摧毀了經(jīng)濟。

History shows the Fed has "never been able to correct" even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment "without pushing the economy into a significant recession," Deutsche Bank said.
德意志銀行表示，歷史表明，美聯(lián)儲“從未能夠在不將經(jīng)濟推入嚴重衰退的情況下糾正”即使是稍微過高的通脹和就業(yè)率。

Given that the job market has "over-tightened" , the bank said, "Something stronger than a mild recession will be needed to do the job."
鑒于勞動力市場已經(jīng)過度緊張了，德意志銀行稱，“需要付出比溫和衰退更大的代價來抑制通脹”。

The good news is that Deutsche Bank sees the economy rebounding by mid-2024 as the Fed reverses course in its inflation fight.
好消息是，德意志銀行認為，隨著美聯(lián)儲逆轉(zhuǎn)抗擊通脹的進程，經(jīng)濟將在2024年年中反彈。

Although Deutsche Bank is pessimistic -- it's the most bearish among major banks on Wall Street -- others contend this gloom-and-doom is overdone.
德意志銀行是華爾街主要銀行中最悲觀的，但有人認為這種悲觀情緒有些過頭了。

Goldman Sachs concedes it will be "very challenging" to bring down high inflation and wage growth, but stresses that a recession is "not inevitable."
高盛承認，抑制高通脹和工資增長將“非常具有挑戰(zhàn)性”，但強調(diào)衰退“并非不可避免”。

UBS is similarly hopeful that the economic expansion will continue despite the Fed's shift to inflation-fighting mode.
瑞士銀行對經(jīng)濟增長將繼續(xù)抱有希望，盡管美聯(lián)儲已轉(zhuǎn)向遏制通脹的模式。

Deutsche Bank said the most important factor behind its more negative view is the likelihood that inflation will remain "persistently elevated for longer than generally anticipated."
德意志銀行表示，其觀點更為悲觀的主要原因是，通脹持續(xù)升高的時間可能會比預(yù)期更長。

"The scourge of inflation has returned and is here to stay," Deutsche Bank said.
德意志銀行表示：“高通脹的影響已經(jīng)卷土重來，并將持續(xù)存在。”

If inflation does stay elevated, the Fed will be forced to consider more dramatic interest rate hikes. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point in March and Chairman Jerome Powell conceded last week that a half-point hike is "on the table" at next week's meeting.
如果通脹率持續(xù)升高，美聯(lián)儲將被迫考慮更大幅度加息。美聯(lián)儲在3月份將利率上調(diào)了0.25個百分點，美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾上周承認，在下周的會議上，加息0.5個百分點是“可能的”。

來源：CNN
編輯：董靜