9月11日，美國主流媒體彭博社（Bloomberg）刊登了一篇標(biāo)題為《中國如何應(yīng)對(duì)變化中的美國？》（How Should China Respond to a Changing U.S.?）的署名文章，引起了國外各界的廣泛關(guān)注。
△彭博社報(bào)道截圖
該文章摘編自傅瑩——全國人民代表大會(huì)外事委員會(huì)副主任委員、中國社科院全球戰(zhàn)略智庫首席專家——2018年8月28-29日在亞洲協(xié)會(huì)等機(jī)構(gòu)的演講《中美今天的選擇決定未來兩國關(guān)系》。
文中傅瑩對(duì)當(dāng)下中美關(guān)系、美國對(duì)華態(tài)度發(fā)表了如下看法：
1【美國對(duì)中國的態(tài)度發(fā)生變化】
傅瑩在文章中談到，她在最近訪美期間，發(fā)現(xiàn)美國人對(duì)華態(tài)度變了。美國學(xué)者普遍認(rèn)為，“在美國幫助中國加入世貿(mào)組織、實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)騰飛之后，中國沒有按照美國期待的方式發(fā)展，美方對(duì)此感到失望。相反，在與中國的經(jīng)貿(mào)交往中，中國占了美國的便宜，美國更擔(dān)心中國在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和技術(shù)階梯上的快速提升。美方還認(rèn)為在軍事上受到被中國‘?dāng)D出’亞洲的威脅。”
The U.S. was frustrated at not having shaped China in its own image, despite bringing the country into the World Trade Organization and helping to enable its economic takeoff. Instead, China had “ripped off” the U.S. by taking advantage of it in trade and business. There was concern at how fast China was climbing up the global economic and technological ladder, and that its military was threatening to “elbow out” the U.S. from Asia.
2【如何改善中美關(guān)系】
傅瑩認(rèn)為，首先中國應(yīng)該思考一個(gè)問題：美國的指責(zé)是否公允？
……the Chinese people first have to ask whether U.S. criticisms are fair.
中國的確沒有隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長而接受美國的政治制度。然而，“在見證了“顏色革命”和“阿拉伯之春”給一些國家?guī)淼暮蠊螅绹鴳?yīng)該慶幸，中國并沒有走上政治動(dòng)蕩或經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂的歧途，而是保持總體社會(huì)穩(wěn)定，成功走出一條符合自身國情的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路，為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)做出了貢獻(xiàn)。”
In fact, given what’s happened to some countries since the “color revolutions” and the “Arab Spring,” the U.S. should be thankful that its efforts haven’t thrown China into political turmoil and economic chaos. The fact that China has maintained social and political stability and followed its own economic path has contributed to global economic growth.
中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展的確是充分利用了美歐推動(dòng)的全球化帶來的機(jī)遇。勤勞的中國人有效使用了國際資金、技術(shù)、經(jīng)驗(yàn)和市場，促進(jìn)了工業(yè)化進(jìn)程。數(shù)以億計(jì)的中國人民擺脫了貧困，人民生活水平取得巨大提升。
True, China’s fortunes have risen as well. Taking advantage of the globalization promoted by the U.S. and Europe, hardworking Chinese gained access to global capital, technologies, expertise and markets, all of which facilitated the growth of industry. Hundreds of millions of Chinese came out of poverty, and living standards in the country have risen substantially.
3【中國在全球化過程中的角色】
不可否認(rèn)的有兩點(diǎn)：首先，中國的工人在發(fā)展的過程中也承受了巨大的代價(jià)，在加入WTO以后，國內(nèi)企業(yè)突然直接面對(duì)國際競爭，多數(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)陷入困難，有的甚至難以為繼，大量工人下崗。
After entering the World Trade Organization, Chinese enterprises were suddenly thrown into direct competition with global peers. Many of them didn’t survive, leading to huge layoffs all over the country.
此外，中國的發(fā)展同樣惠及美國。牛津研究院估計(jì)，從中國進(jìn)口的低價(jià)商品幫助普通美國家庭平均每年節(jié)省850美元。從2001年到2016 年，美國貨物貿(mào)易對(duì)華出口增長500%，遠(yuǎn)高于同期對(duì)全球出口90%的增幅。萬物聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代的到來和中國快速增長的中高收入消費(fèi)者群體的出現(xiàn)，將為美國公司提供更多機(jī)會(huì)。
China’s gains have benefited the U.S. as well. According to Oxford Economics, U.S.-China trade helps each American family save $850 every year. Between 2001 and 2016, U.S. commodities exports to China expanded five times, much higher than the 90 percent average increase. The advent of the “internet of things” and rapid growth in the number of China’s middle- and upper-class consumers will offer even more opportunities for U.S. companies.
因此，面對(duì)變化中的美國，面對(duì)美國的強(qiáng)硬但混亂的聲音，傅瑩認(rèn)為，我們需要保持淡定，重要的是聚焦自身發(fā)展，解決好自己的問題。
The Chinese have to stay cool-headed in the face of tough but confusing messages from the U.S. We must stay focused on China’s development, and overcome our own difficulties.
4【中國對(duì)美國態(tài)度如何】
傅瑩表示，中國沒有對(duì)美采取更加對(duì)抗的態(tài)度。因?yàn)椋袊鴮?duì)美政策是整體外交政策的組成部分，而中國外交政策的目標(biāo)是維護(hù)一個(gè)和平的外部環(huán)境和合作的國際關(guān)系, 以服務(wù)于國家的發(fā)展。
China is not adopting a more confrontational stance toward the U.S. Its current attitude is part of its overall foreign policy, which is aimed at ensuring a sound environment that facilitates effective cooperation with the outside world to serve China’s development goals.
5【中國如何應(yīng)對(duì)中美貿(mào)易摩擦】
傅瑩坦陳，中美關(guān)系的變局對(duì)中國也是又一次倒逼改革的機(jī)會(huì)。中國政府正在進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)開放：國家主席習(xí)近平今年四月宣布的11項(xiàng)開發(fā)市場的具體承諾，迄已落實(shí)8項(xiàng)，涉及銀行、證券、保險(xiǎn)、評(píng)級(jí)、征信、支付等。政府也在下大力氣改善營商環(huán)境，加強(qiáng)對(duì)中外企業(yè)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的保護(hù)。中國的改革者可以將外部壓力轉(zhuǎn)化為動(dòng)力，打破阻力、實(shí)現(xiàn)必要的改革成效。
In fact, changes in U.S.-China relations may help to push China’s own desired reforms. The government is, in fact, opening up: Eight out of the 11 market-opening measures announced by President Xi Jinping in April have been put in place, covering banking, securities, insurance, credit rating, credit investigation and payment, and so on. The government is also working harder to improve the business environment and strengthen intellectual property protections for both Chinese and foreign enterprises. Chinese reformers can turn outside pressure to their advantage, using it to bust through internal resistance to necessary changes.
但有一點(diǎn)必須清楚：中方絕不會(huì)屈服于關(guān)稅霸凌。有些言論聲稱貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)使中國經(jīng)濟(jì)“滑坡”，還有人認(rèn)為可以期待中國屈服了。這只是一廂情愿。
But make no mistake: The Chinese people will stand firm against U.S. bullying over trade. There is talk about China’s economy “sliding down” as a result of the trade war. Some expect China to succumb soon. I can tell you that this is wishful thinking.
傅瑩在文章結(jié)尾處表示，“中國應(yīng)繼續(xù)與美方溝通。……中方有責(zé)任堅(jiān)持對(duì)話，逐步澄清雙方的一致點(diǎn)和分歧點(diǎn)，以拆解矛盾和解決問題、抑或管理難題的方式，渡過中美關(guān)系的險(xiǎn)灘激流。”
But that doesn’t relieve China of the responsibility to engage in dialogue, to find out where the two sides can and can’t agree, and to seek solutions or at least ways to manage persistent disputes.
最后，傅瑩引用了一個(gè)俚語，說明中國仍然會(huì)堅(jiān)持主張，繼續(xù)保持對(duì)話合作。“當(dāng)然，那些一心尋求對(duì)抗的人或許不會(huì)對(duì)這個(gè)途徑感興趣。但是——讓我借用一個(gè)俚語——如果有些人想追逐蝴蝶，其他人為什么要隨之起舞呢？”
Such an approach won’t appeal to those who seek confrontation now. But, to borrow a saying, if some folks want to chase butterflies, why should the rest of us go dancing along with them?
傅瑩的文章闡明了中國對(duì)待中美貿(mào)易摩擦的態(tài)度以及對(duì)中美關(guān)系未來走勢(shì)的看法，然而，她的觀點(diǎn)并非一家之言，此前，許多外媒的報(bào)道也印證了中方對(duì)中美貿(mào)易摩擦持有的一貫態(tài)度。
【美國貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)不只針對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)】
《南華早報(bào)》在8月19日發(fā)表題為《不只關(guān)稅：中國將貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)視為美國新的牽制政策》。
文章稱，作為延緩中國經(jīng)濟(jì)和科技崛起的眾多戰(zhàn)略之一，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)與美國近期的其他舉動(dòng)，都是為了制約中國的國際影響力。
As part of a wider strategy to slow China’s economic and technological rise, the trade war joins other recent moves by the US to rein in China’s global influence.
【特朗普搬起石頭砸自己的腳】
洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)4月5日的報(bào)道《特朗普的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)不會(huì)達(dá)成他的目的，反而會(huì)傷害美國的工人和消費(fèi)者》表明，特朗普的政策只會(huì)搬起石頭砸自己的腳。
正如傅瑩所說，“中國的發(fā)展惠及美國”，打擊中國貿(mào)易，則會(huì)殃及池魚。該報(bào)道稱，特朗普的政策將損害制造業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)以及投資領(lǐng)域。
經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大的是美國的制造業(yè)……以及農(nóng)業(yè)，中西部的豆農(nóng)以及加州的堅(jiān)果種植主，都將面臨國外市場的巨大損失。
The economic sectors most at risk are American manufacturing,……and agriculture, where growers of soybeans in the Midwest and nuts in California face the loss of significant foreign markets.
特朗普的政策還會(huì)損害中國投資流入美國，受此威脅尤為嚴(yán)重的是加州，因?yàn)橹袊鴮?duì)美國直接投資的四分之一都流向了加州。
Trump's policies also threaten the flow of Chinese investment into the U.S.; that's a particular threat to California, which has been the destination for one-fourth of all Chinese direct investment in the U.S.
《南華早報(bào)》6月22日的報(bào)道《特朗普的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中，美國企業(yè)受傷首當(dāng)其沖》。
美國的彼得森國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所研究院Mary Lovely和Yang Liang在一份研究中表示，“特朗普301條款的關(guān)稅政策是商業(yè)目標(biāo)，但它對(duì)美國自身利益的損害遠(yuǎn)高于對(duì)它的預(yù)期目標(biāo)。”
“President Trump’s Section 301 tariffs are a commercial own goal in that they harm American interests more than their intended targets.”
【中國在自我改革】
傅瑩在文章中說，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)倒逼中國的改革，同時(shí)，中國應(yīng)自身做大做強(qiáng)。《外交學(xué)者》雜志網(wǎng)站發(fā)表的一篇評(píng)論文章《美中貿(mào)易摩擦的更大威脅》稱，中國正在積極降低對(duì)貿(mào)易的依賴。
中國正在持續(xù)地、成功地降低對(duì)貿(mào)易的依賴：出口總量占GDP的比重已經(jīng)從2007年的超過30%下降到去年的不到20%；同時(shí)，對(duì)美國的出口也從近9%下降到4%。
But China has been making a concerted, successful push to reduce its dependence on trade: the share of total exports in its gross domestic product fell from over 30 percent in 2007 to under 20 percent last year; during that same time, the share of exports to the United States fell from approximately 9 percent of China's economy to just over 4 percent.
CNBC在9月10的報(bào)道《特朗普針對(duì)中國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)會(huì)引發(fā)“反常行動(dòng)”，CLSA經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱》
文章引用里昂證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Eric Fishwick的觀點(diǎn)，稱“（貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)）可能會(huì)引發(fā)反常行動(dòng)，使得中國增加供給……變得越來越自給自足，生產(chǎn)越來越多高科技產(chǎn)品。這肯定會(huì)鼓勵(lì)中國采取更多措施加強(qiáng)其政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力。”
"It may well have the perverse reaction of accelerating China's attempts to move up the supply curve ... to become self-sufficient (in) more and more high-tech products. And it will certainly encourage China in its moves to build more and more political and economic spheres of influence,"
此外，他還談到，在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方面，中國一直致力于向高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)邁進(jìn)，其“中國制造2025”計(jì)劃旨在夯實(shí)、提高機(jī)器人和電動(dòng)汽車等領(lǐng)域的制造業(yè)實(shí)力。
On the economic development front, China has been on a mission to move toward high-tech industries, with its Made in China 2025 plan seeking to establish manufacturing strength in areas such as robotics and electric vehicles.
【中國無心戀戰(zhàn)，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)無法挫傷中國發(fā)展】
《華盛頓郵報(bào)》9月7日的文章《特朗普威脅對(duì)價(jià)值2670億美元的中國商品征收關(guān)稅，將貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)擴(kuò)大到中國進(jìn)口美國的所有商品》表示，中國并無意擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。
文章引用康奈爾大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、IMF中國區(qū)前總裁Eswar Prasad的觀點(diǎn)，稱“特朗普的言論表明他想要升級(jí)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)直到中國認(rèn)輸?shù)囊鈭D，但是中國也明確表明，無意這樣做。”
Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund's China division. "Trump’s remarks confirm his intention to continue escalating trade sanctions until China capitulates, and China has equally clearly signaled it has no intention of doing so."
對(duì)于貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)影響中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的觀點(diǎn)，美聯(lián)社的報(bào)道也呼應(yīng)了傅瑩的觀點(diǎn)。“這只是一廂情愿”。
AP在9月11日的文章《如果美國增加關(guān)稅，中國則會(huì)反擊》稱，“7月和8月，盡管美國關(guān)稅增加，但中國對(duì)美國的出口貿(mào)易出其不意地呈現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長。這也許會(huì)增加美國的挫敗感，促使他們?cè)黾舆M(jìn)口管制。”
China's exports to the United States have been unexpectedly resilient, rising by double digits in July and August despite the US tariff hikes. That might add to Washington's frustration and prompt more import controls.
編輯：胡雨濛
實(shí)習(xí)生：朱晨、徐夢(mèng)姍、尹易
